Prekurzor-alapú földrengés-előrejelzés: vágyálom vagy valós lehetőség?
Precursor-based earthquake prediction: wishful thinking or real possibility?
Keywords:
földrengéselőrejelzés, kutatási stratégia, prekurzor ujjlenyomatAbstract
Earthquake prediction-related research gained a new impetus during the last two decades after a period of prevailing pessimistic attitude of the science community. Encouraging results were obtained using new and various approaches and innovative techniques mostly focused around the idea of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling. However, scepticism still persists due to 1) ambitious individual or restrained team efforts aiming at discovering the “holy Grail” of earthquake prediction by developing self-conceived methodologies, hence obstructing large-scale synergic multidisciplinary approaches, and 2) the lack of a conceptually well-supported long-term research strategy. To counteract this drawback, a paradigm-shifting long-term research strategy was recently proposed based on the newly introduced concept of “precursory fingerprint” targeting individual seismic structures. Because its well-known structure and centuries-long record and behaviour, Romania’s Vrancea seismic zone appears as an ideal target for experimenting the new concept-based earthquake prediction research strategy.
References
HOUGH, S. 2010: Predicting the unpredictable. The tumultuous science of earthquake prediction, Princeton University Press, p. 280, Princeton
GELLER, R.J., JACKSON, D.D., KAGAN, Y.Y., MULARGIA, F. 1997; Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted Science, 275 (5306), 1616
MATTHEWS, R. A. J., 1997: Decision-theoretic limits on earthquake prediction. Geophysical Journal, 131 (3), 526–529
OUZOUNOV D., PULINETS S., HATTORI K., TAYLOR P., 2018: Pre‐Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies, 234, Geophysical Monograph Series, John Wiley & Sons, p. 384.
PULINETS, S., OUZOUNOV, D. 2018: The Possibility of Earthquake Forecasting Learning from nature. IOP Publishing, p. 152, Bristol, UK
MARTINELLI G., 2020: Previous, Current, and Future Trends in Research into Earthquake Precursors in Geo-fluids. Geosciences, 10(5), 189; doi:10.3390/geosciences10050189
Pulinets, S., Ouzounov, D, Karelin, A, Davidenko, D. 2018: Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere–Magnetosphere Coupling - A Concept for Pre‐Earthquake Signals Generation. in Dimitar Ouzounov, Sergey Pulinets, Katsumi Hattori, Patrick Taylor (Eds.) Pre‐Earthquake Processes. A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies. AGU, John Wiley and Sons Inc., p. 79-98
PERESAN, A., KOSSOBOKOV, V., PANZA, G.F., 2012: Operational earthquake forecast/prediction. Rendiconti Lincei. Scienze Fisiche e Naturali, 23: 131–138
WYSS, M., 2001: Why is earthquake prediction research not progressing faster? Tectonophysics, 338, (3-4): 217-223
Martinelli, G., 2018: Contributions to a history of earthquake prediction research. in Dimitar Ouzounov, Ser-gey Pulinets, Katsumi Hattori, Patrick Taylor (Eds.) Pre‐Earthquake Processes. A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies. AGU, John Wiley and Sons Inc., p. 67–76.
SZAKÁCS A., 2021: Precursor-Based Earthquake Prediction Research: Proposal for a Paradigm-Shifting Stra-tegy. Frontiers in Earth Science, Geohazards and Georisks, doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.548398.
KOVÁCS I. J., LIPTAI N., KOPTEV A., CLOETINGH S. A. P. L., LANGE T. P., MAȚENCO L., SZAKÁCS A., RA-DULIAN M., BERKESI M., PATKÓ L., MOLNÁR G., NOVÁK A., WESZTERGOM V., SZABÓ Cs., FANCSIK T. 2021: The ‘pargasosphere’ hypothesis: looking at global plate tectonics from a new perspective. Global and Plane-tary Change, 204 (3-4):103547
