Prekurzor-alapú földrengés-előrejelzés: vágyálom vagy valós lehetőség?
Precursor-based earthquake prediction: wishful thinking or real possibility?
Keywords:földrengéselőrejelzés, kutatási stratégia, prekurzor ujjlenyomat
Earthquake prediction-related research gained a new impetus during the last two decades after a period of prevailing pessimistic attitude of the science community. Encouraging results were obtained using new and various approaches and innovative techniques mostly focused around the idea of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling. However, scepticism still persists due to 1) ambitious individual or restrained team efforts aiming at discovering the “holy Grail” of earthquake prediction by developing self-conceived methodologies, hence obstructing large-scale synergic multidisciplinary approaches, and 2) the lack of a conceptually well-supported long-term research strategy. To counteract this drawback, a paradigm-shifting long-term research strategy was recently proposed based on the newly introduced concept of “precursory fingerprint” targeting individual seismic structures. Because its well-known structure and centuries-long record and behaviour, Romania’s Vrancea seismic zone appears as an ideal target for experimenting the new concept-based earthquake prediction research strategy.
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